Updated: May 28, 2020
Disclaimer: All of the things mentioned are for education purposes. It is your responsibility to exercise your judgement when making your decision.
The year of the rat may bring drastic changes to the way we live our life, especially for the next three years (2021 Ox Year, 2022 Tiger Year, 2023 Rabbit Year). In my calculation, a possible recession is brewing. With the newly added element of coronavirus, it adds stress to the economy globally. If it recession were to start early, we could expect it to be September (Rooster Month) onward. Base on metaphysics calculations which brings about self-destruction. The bear is coming.
US may be bullish for the current moment. It is not without a price. It has introduced another round of quantitative easing last autumn – about US$400 billion since September to protect the bubble even with record-low US unemployment rate. Fed has relied on propping up the US stock market to keep it going. When the paper can't wrap up a fire (纸包不住火), it means it will burn itself out as truth will eventually reveal itself despite cover-ups. I would expect to slide in months to come. It is wise to be more vigilant and quick to respond if signs start to appear.
China will have a difficult time catching up on losses even if the virus is over. China's financial ramifications will be a significant drag for many quarters to come. China’s local governments and businesses have been struggling against high leverage amid slowing growth. China’s manufacturing sector will take quite some time to get back to normal. The global supply chain is being disrupted, triggering production stoppages in other industrial centres.
Food for thought:
Berkshire Hathaway, which is led by famed value investor Warren Buffett (Born in the year of Horse; 1930). We may expect some unfortunate news such as wrong decisions, poor health or even death. Hence, we should consider US market Future Without Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett wants 90 per cent of his wealth to go to this one investment after he’s gone. The Oracle of Omaha even said he’s instructed the trustee in charge of his estate to invest 90 per cent of his money into the S&P 500 for his wife after he dies, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick in an exclusive interview.
If Berkshire Hathaway is stockpiling cash because it doesn't see any good deals right now, or because it thinks the market is about to fall, that would be bad news. In Buffett's case, he is known for his distaste for holding on to large hoards of cash. As he famously stated in his 1998 letter to shareholders: "Cash does not make us happy."